The markets seem fixated on when the Federal Reserve will start to drop interest rates in the US. Certainly, Chairman Powell was slightly more dovish in his press conference after the FOMC meeting than many had anticipated. Some traders opined that Jay Po had had a sneak preview of last Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls figure, and after the number came in moderately weaker than analysts had predicted, this view gathered strength.
The last month of the year has started, and certainly, there is a chill in the air in London, not on Wall Street, where stock markets had an excellent week. Indeed, US stocks had the second-best November since the 1980s. With interest rates seemingly at their peak in the US, traders' appetite for risk has returned with a vengeance, and all looks good for 2024 and beyond.
Depending on your standpoint, the markets enjoyed or endured a very quiet week last week. The combination of a lack of top-tier data and a surfeit of Turkey and Pumpkin Pie in the US put paid to any energy that there may have been. With this background, it was no surprise that the currency markets traded sideways, with action postponed to this week.
Last week saw the publication of inflation figures both here and in the US. Both sets of figures certainly seem to point to a taming of inflation, and the UK's will have brought a much-needed bit of cheer to the otherwise beleaguered Prime Minister as he achieved his target of halving inflation.
The markets continued to digest the recent central bank meetings this week whilst keeping a wary eye out for further developments in the Middle East. It felt like every central banker going took their turn at the speakers' rostrum during the week. Did we learn anything new?
The Fed and Old Lady came to the stage last week with markets on tenterhooks waiting for a surprise, and as if in concert, they delivered everything but a surprise. As expected, there were no changes in interest rates and the prospect of higher for longer was reinforced once again. Whether they both will need to raise rates again is most definitely in the balance. Firstly, the Fed is relying on the US Bond market to do the “heavy lifting” that, in reality, fiscal policy should be doing, which so far has been working. The premise that higher long-term rates temper Main Street’s spending is true, but sooner or later, bond rates will drop as spending dries up, and then what? A tricky path for Jay Powell to tread, and unsurprisingly he left the door ajar for more tightening. His opposite number in the UK, Andrew Bailey, also has issues to confront. With public and private sector salaries still roaring ahead, his concern should be that the UK gets into a wage push inflation cycle and interest rates have to rise more.
The markets, understandably, have remained fundamentally "headline driven" as they await further developments from the Middle East with a bias towards risk off. This sentiment has continued to benefit the dollar against its peers, whilst gold, oil, and Bitcoin have also had their fans. The dollar, of course, is being helped by the continuing strength of the US economy, as shown, but GDP is coming in at 4.9%, beating expectations. However, the Fed's favoured inflation indicator, the PCE Deflator, came in pretty much as forecast. With data still this strong, it is understandable that US 10-year bonds continue to yield around 5% and with the high level of upcoming issuance, it's hard to see them retreating too far from these levels.
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